Transnistrien / Russland - Gbit es einen Odessa - Moment ?

Samstag, 11. März 2023 , von Freeman-Fortsetzung um 12:40


Von  Black Mountain Analysis

I want to give a small update about several topics.

  1. I started to write the next major article. It will cover the Media, religions, manipulation techniques, democracy and many more topics. I intend to release it sometime between now and the first April week. Depending how much time I can free for writing.

  2. Do you remember my last major article? About the prospects for World War 3? I was explaining the Odessa moment. (Note, the credit goes to Scott Ritter for this word/concept, not to me, he invented it.) In the screenshot below is a reminder

  3. It looks to me now that it is very well possible, that the Odessa moment could be triggered already in Donbass. I credited too much will for a longer fight to the Ukrainian (Western) command. Reports coming in, that the Ukrainians (NATO) decided to do its last stand in Donbass. Hence, all the Western trained formations, that were earmarked for a (phantasy) offensive to Mariupol, Melitopol or Crimea has been activated to defend both, Artemovsk and the approach to Zaporozhiye.

    I never though, there will be an offensive, since I saw the earmarked forces being worn away before an offensive can take place. But I assumed it will be to defend the Dnieper line. Now it is to be questioned whether the war will approach the Dnieper line at all… I’m no longer sure, since the most idiotic decision of all decisions that have ever been decided, has been decided. To throw all remaining forces in the four Theatres of war, declared by BMA. The pinning Theatre (Belarus) will maybe not be activated at all, or only to secure Kiev, after a collapse.

    It depends on how many troops Ukraine still can mobilize and throw without training into the frontlines, to prolong the war. Remember, it is a Russian civil war. Casualties on both sides are a win for the West and a loose for the Russians. Yes, Ukrainian casualties as well. Since the West is managing and commanding Ukraine, their goal is to kill as many Ukrainians and Russians (Scorched Earth) as possible.

    Russia will either need to kill (or wound/capture) every single man that is being thrown on them or trigger a collapse as fast as possible by overstretching Ukrainian logistics and inflict a higher casualty rate on the Ukrainians then their mobilizing/replenishment rate is. Such a collapse would preserve what is left of the Ukrainian (not fled) able bodied male population. The question is whether the Russian high command is in the meanwhile inclined to “let it happen” as a part of the “denazification”. (Note: This is not the opinion of BMA but part of an analysis to line out possible Russian decision trees)

    One also needs to take into consideration that every single man, being thrown into the Donbass and being killed there, is one potential partisan less in central and Western Ukraine. Also, all troops being drawn out of big Ukrainian central, south and West cities, are better being killed in an already warzone then in siege warfare in big cities. Imagine a siege of Kharkov or Odessa. Horrible.

    The grim reality could be, that the decision could have been made to defeat Ukraine’s war and partisan potential completely in Donbass.

    This is certainly an outcome that I (BMA) consider as catastrophic and I’m absolutely NOT happy about it. This certain dimension of the geopolitical struggle is being won big time by the West. It is a full victory. Slavs fully kill each other. Congratulations. Luckily this is only one out of many dimensions, that BMA is describing. There are more to come in the remaining major articles.

  4. Well, the West’s targets in Ukraine (now, the targets of course change dynamically according to the geopolitical realities) is to inflict as much damage to both, the Ukrainian people/troops and to the Russian troops. And to hold the line as long as possible, since a retreat would immediately collapse the media narrative, that Russia is losing millions of troops a day and will soon collapse. And thereby the Western public support.

    In my next major article, I will describe how the Media works and how such big virtual narratives can be dropped within days and exchanged for the next narrative.

  5. Ukraine lost its last opportunity to win the war. If the plan would have succeeded to accumulate forces for an offensive against the landbridge to Crimea, there would have been a real possibility for resistance in Russia. To change the political realities. Impossible? It is very well possible. Why? Because the Russian leadership decided to run the war still as a SMO (Special Military Operation). Big setbacks and defeats are not part of the preparation and mobilisation of the Russian public. A big defeat of a “punishment operation” like the SMO can be very hard communicated to the Russian public.

    You want to argue with Kherson and Kharkov? It was manoeuvring. Very less Russian troops were killed or captured. Russia would need to defend Crimea, Melitopol or Mariupol with all available troops. Here is no space for manoeuvring. These places are strategically important and can’t be abandoned only to recapture it later. A direct force on force clash here would be very bloody for everyone involved. We would talk about tens or hundreds of thousand casualties on both sides combined. Well, it is impossible :-)

    That’s exactly what I was lining out in my former operational updates. By activating the five Theatres, Ukrainian forces were overstretched and worn down on five different places. The concentrated effort in the South was being made impossible. Nice try.

  6. The decision to hold Artemovsk is essentially the admission that it is over. It IS over. The Ukrainian professional army is almost defeated and the rest will be worn down in the “Hold” order in Donbass. Unfortunately, the “It’s over” statement still means months of concluding battles were tens or hundreds of thousand Ukrainians and Russians will die. This is the aforementioned single victory dimension of the West.

  7. What is gruesome as well, is when I think of a WW1 and WW2 analogue. After months or years of battle the major powers have been waiting for the next generation of teenagers to reach the age for recruitment. Every year one new generation of mostly 16 year old boys have been mobilized.

    Ukraine reached this stage as well. Hence, there is no way on earth, that Russia will allow the existence of a professional military organization in Ukraine longer than 2023. Considering the current Artemovsk decision of the Ukrainians it is very likely, that my prediction of the Ukrainian collapse in the summer 2023 is precise.

  8. I want to highlight here, since I didn’t do that until now, explicitly, that Russia also is suffering high casualties. The biggest since WW2. We are not only talking about dead but about wounded, that can’t be used any longer on the battlefield and which needs to be replaced with fresh troops. It is stressing available pool of troops and also the civil economy. Many of these people will be taken care off their whole life.

    Russia will need many workers going forward. The rebuild domestic production of essentially everything. In both, the new territories in the former Ukraine and in the old Russia as well. The main casualties are being take by Wagner. I don’t want to explain it before the war ends. But their purpose is the “outsource” of the biggest parts of the casualties in an organization, which is not officially part of the Russian army. Of course it is under the full command of the Russian army and Prigozhin is only the civil manager of it. Let’s call him head of human resources (HR) :-)

    When we celebrate Russian victories (which are for the time being mainly the effective destruction of the Ukrainian army and not territorial gains) we need always think abou the Russian casualties as well. 100 Russian casualties per day are very realistic. Yes, it is not comparable to what Ukraine is suffering. It is an industrial extermination of the Ukrainian army. But still, I want you to always keep in mind, that Russia is suffering casualties that no Western country has been suffering since WW2, daily. Always keep that in mind when you think about celebrating Russian victory. We should respect that!

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